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4 alasan The Fed berpotensi menaikkan suku bunga

Masuk

Apakah Anda tahu apa yang harus dilakukan jika The Fed menaikkan suku bunga, Wangsit Sugiri?

Belum lama ini, sebagian besar trader masih memperkirakan suku bunga akan turun. Namun, sentimen telah berubah tajam: pasar kini memperkirakan peluang kenaikan suku bunga sebesar 25 basis poin pada 16 September berada di kisaran 60–66%.

Lakukan deposit untuk bersiap

Faktor-faktor yang mendukung kenaikan suku bunga

Sikap The Fed yang lebih tegas

Pidato Ketua The Fed di Jackson Hole memicu perubahan sentimen di kalangan trader. Ia menegaskan bahwa The Fed tidak akan membiarkan inflasi tetap tinggi dalam waktu lama dan dapat kembali menaikkan suku bunga jika belum terlihat kemajuan menuju target inflasi 2%.

Inflasi yang masih tinggi

Jika data inflasi mendatang lebih tinggi dari perkiraan, ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga dapat kembali meningkat. Namun, jika inflasi melambat, pasar dapat memberi tekanan pada dolar AS.

Risiko geopolitik

Gelombang ketegangan baru di Timur Tengah telah mendorong harga minyak naik dan memicu kekhawatiran terhadap potensi kejutan inflasi berikutnya.

Harga minyak lebih tinggi

Kenaikan harga energi dapat membuat inflasi tetap tinggi lebih lama dari perkiraan. Hal ini memberi The Fed alasan tambahan untuk mempertahankan kebijakan moneter yang ketat.

Pasar tenaga kerja kuat

Data ketenagakerjaan terbaru lebih baik dari perkiraan. Kondisi ini semakin memperkuat argumen untuk kebijakan moneter yang lebih ketat.

Nah, pertanyaannya adalah:

•	Apakah The Fed benar-benar akan menaikkan suku bunga pada September?

•	Atau, apakah ekspektasi pasar sudah bergerak terlalu jauh?

Lihat grafik XAUUSD

Bagaimana pasar akan bereaksi terhadap keputusan The Fed?

Jika The Fed menaikkan suku bunga

Pasar akan mendapat konfirmasi atas perubahan ekspektasi yang terjadi baru-baru ini. Namun, trader akan segera mencari petunjuk mengenai kemungkinan kenaikan suku bunga berikutnya.

Jika The Fed mempertahankan suku bunga

Reaksi pasar bisa menjadi lebih menarik. Pasar dapat dengan cepat mengurangi sebagian posisi yang sebelumnya mengantisipasi kebijakan lebih ketat.‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

Jika The Fed memberikan sinyal baru

Pernyataan yang lebih tegas atau lebih longgar mengenai arah kebijakan ke depan dapat menggerakkan USD, emas, dan indeks AS secara tajam ke salah satu arah.‌

Apa yang perlu dilakukan trader sebelum keputusan suku bunga?

Periksa ekspektasi pasar saat ini.

Tandai level harga penting.

Pastikan Anda sudah mengetahui tindakan untuk beberapa kemungkinan skenario.

Tentukan ukuran posisi dan batas risiko Anda.

Ingat!

Hal terpenting yang perlu diingat adalah volatilitas dapat meningkat setelah keputusan diumumkan. Volatilitas memang dapat menciptakan peluang, tetapi juga meningkatkan risiko trading secara signifikan. Karena itu, pastikan Anda telah mempersiapkan diri dan mengelola risiko dengan tepat.

Trading berdasarkan volatilitas

*Materi ini bukan ajakan, saran, atau rekomendasi trading dan hanya untuk informasi. FBS tidak bertanggung jawab atas kerugian yang timbul akibat penggunaan informasi atau strategi yang dijelaskan di sini.

Pusat Bantuan | Masuk

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Jika Anda memiliki pertanyaan, silakan hubungi kami melalui email di support@fbs.com

Peringatan risiko: Sebelum memulai trading, Anda harus benar-benar memahami risiko yang terkait dalam pasar mata uang dan trading menggunakan margin, dan Anda harus menyadari tingkat pengalaman Anda.